Understanding the magnitude of Tesla’s $11b+ triumph

Telsa now has 276,000+ preorders which, at an average order of $42,000, will result in $11b+ in revenue.

It’s clear that Tesla will hit 500,000 pre-orders this year.

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The original iPhone sold 5m+ units in its first year, which at $600 would be $3b+ in total sales. The iPad sold 19m+ in its first year, which at $700 would be $13b+ in total sales.

$11b+ in sales for a product that will be delivered no sooner than 21 months from now — a year into Donald or Hillary’s first term.

$11b+ in pre-sales for a product as oil has fallen from a high of $140/barrel ($5/gallon) to a low of $28/barrel ($1.60/gallon).

What can we take from this incomprehensible success?

  1. Tesla built up massive demand based on absurd NPS scores over the eight years since the Tesla Roadster hit the roads.
  2. Some percentage of consumers are enamored with the concept of emissions-free vehicles — even if they cost *more* than other cars.
  3. By extension, I think we can say that a significant number of consumers — enough to create the best selling pre-order product in the history of humanity — believe in global warming even though it will cost them personally more money.
  4. The long tech boom is very real, with the advantages of efficiency and innovation compounding at companies like Tesla, Amazon, Uber, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Netflix, which are designed around leveraging technology.
  5. Many analysts have no idea what they are talking about.
  6. Betting against Elon Musk, which seemed to be very much in vogue two years ago, is a very, very bad idea.

We live in a time of amazing change in the world, and Tesla’s past week will go down in history as one of the most important triumphs in the history of business, and perhaps even the turning point at which humanity decided to act in concert to solve a problem that transcends governments and borders: global warming.

Congrats to Elon and the team.

Best, @jason

PS – I always follow Tesla closely, but this time around I was able get the highlights from the Inside Daily Brief without needing to sift through all the noise. Check it out and let me know what you think!

PPS – At the 2016 LAUNCH Festival I hosted a VC panel with Hunter Walk, Aileen Lee, and Jed Katz. A great discussion you can watch here.