Supporting Flash (and Java and .Net) on the iPhone would open a possibility for user to circumvent the AppStore and use every application they want without any vetoing by Apple (and without paying anything to Apple)

The next version of Quicktime will support playback of Flash videos (FLV files).

I don’t think that Apple should open up iTunes for 3rd party player but rather open their iPods so that they can be used with (most of the time better) 3rd party software. This would allow me to get rid of the crappy iTunes application. Good.

And then there is this general misconception that Apple is creating general purpose computers and phones. Wrong. Their products are more similar to the Xbox, PlayStation, Wii, etc. – i.e. they are actually building game consoles for people with wide pockets in their midlife crisis. That’s why the

I don’t have inside info, only public info.

Adobe’s goal is to make it easier to publish rich media anywhere, on any device. Last year Adobe re-org’d to develop a common Flash Player across laptop, mobile, and wall display… we should see the first models towards the end of this year, with volume starting in 2010. Here’s the starting-point:
http://www.openscreenproject.org/

For specific brands (such as iPhone or Blackberry) it’s harder for me to say, because product announcements belong to the manufacturers themselves rather than to the makers of common enabling technology. Adobe has publicly confirmed that we’re doing the engineering work on iPhone, although there’s no info yet as to whether a browser plugin will be permitted by the manufacturer. Blackberry is a little less clear, in part because of the Java reliance:
http://apcmag.com/adobe_explains_why_theres_no_flash_on_iphone_or_blackberry.htm

Summary: No news on those specific two devices, sorry, but Adobe’s goal is to get Flash working on them all.

tx, jd/adobe

Assuming mobile means apps, you’re spot on, but the question here is how long will apps trump Web? Apple is doing a commendable job with Safari to cultivate Web standards and, unless they kill this initiative or prevent Web access through the browser (and there is absolutely no way they’d get away with that, not for a minute), the ability to get open standards based apps on iPhone is not at all hindered (not having Flash is a boon to this movement, as it promotes innovation the likes of which you allude to when discussing HTML5).

In the end, if Apple continues to impose limitations on the App store, I believe they’re going to lose the app market to the browser. And why would they let this happen when they can’t monetize the browser in the same way they can monetize the App store? (Again, other than limiting browser access, which would cause an uproar and fallout the likes of which we can’t begin to comprehend.)

I expect that the App store policies will shift dramatically towards open once AT&T exclusivity is up, as they’ll be able to leverage their sales track record and consequent interest from other carriers into continued (though limited) profit sharing, bolstered by increased App store sales. If they don’t go this route, and choose instead to continue to limit app access, they’re going to have serious issues ahead with consumers and, more importantly, with developers. There’s too much competition in the mobile space, as quiet as it’s been, for them to alienate developers and piss off consumers.

Great listening to you and Leo on TWIT!