Just an FTYI: I’m getting on a flight to NYC now and will be in NYC till Sat, then heading down to Orlando for the iMedia Brand Summit in Florida.

Ouch!

If this is a true than I was right again.

Check it out: http://discuss.aol.co.uk/home.aspx?id_Content=2

From my 2006 Predictions:

8. Google’s stock will take it’s first significant hit (> 15% drop) at some point during the year, but not because of their earnings but rather some outside factor (think advertising slow down, terrorist attack in the US, tech bubble bursting, etc). Google’s stock will end the year basically flat (+/-10%) while their earnings soar.

Google disappointed and their stock is down–gulp–$75 right now.

So, #8 on my predictions for 2006 is done too. Now, if DIGG sells to Yahoo/CNET in the next month I’ll have three of my 20 predictions come true in the first two months of the year. :-

The best way to contact me is via email at jason at calacanis dot com. If you’ve got a business proposition please be blunt and to the point with me and I’ll respond as quick a I can.

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Updates:

• No response from John Battelle,
• Dave agrees that Google made the best of two bad choices. Jake is also in the engagement camp.
  
• We should have a debate on this issue at the next big tech conference.
  
• Woz discusses the issue on TWiT, he thinks we should respect them. John thinks that the issue is that Google set the “don’t be evil” benchmark so high.
  
• Some folks are dumping Adsense over the issue.
• The argument against going in via a screen grab (from the comments).
  

A lot of folks, including John Battelle, are taking a hard line on China and our involvement there as technologists. For those of you who don’t know, Google is going into China and they are–shockingly for Google–censoring their results at the Governement’s request. As everyone knows, the Google mantra is don’t be evil, and clearly censorship is very, very evil.

Technologists have limited choices when it comes to China, we can:

1. Fight China’s requests, be kicked out of the country, and have our services permanently blocked.
2. Agree to China’s rules and regulations–even though we don’t agree with them–and get a foothold in the rapidly changing environment.

As we all know–the Chinese government included–there is ultimately no way to hold back freedom of information in China. What the government wants, and I’ve been there and spoken to a lot of people about these issues, is to have *their* change be gradual.

Now, this gradual approach doesn’t feel very American, but the truth is our own journey to democracy was a slow, bloody journey of well over 100 years.

Does it suck that folks in China will search Google and not get perfect results when they search for Tienanmen Square? Of course it does, but they will still be able to search for the Declaration of Human Rights or the latest anonymous surfing relay. Everyone knows the government of China can’t police all of Google, let alone the Internet. No one knows this more than the Chinese government.

Taking a hard line with China will make them pull back and move slower. Giving the people, and the government, a taste of how sweet democracy and a free market can be will draw them in, and once you’ve tasted freedom you can’t go backwards. The place has changed more in the past year than in the past ten, and more in the past ten years than in the past 1,000 years. We’re getting there, and Google is–in fact–being brave in compromising their own ethics to get their foothold in China.

Google doesn’t need to be in China to hit there numbers, they’ve got plenty of growth domestically and in other countries. The “Google Guys” don’t even need to be at Google any more–they could retire and get out of the game. Google is in China because they want to promote positive change, and they’ve picked the most effective–but not popular–way to do that: engagement.

If our goal is to spread democracy in China the quickest way to do that is to make some short-term compromises. Drawing a hard line is the easy, intellectual route to take, but it’s hopelessly naive. Rolling up your sleeves and investing in a market that could collapse or kick you out is, in fact, the courageous route.

My pal Fred says we’re (AOL that is) selling user inboxes because we’re moving to Goodmail, which charges folks to get certified in order to send email as opposed to using our old Whitelist system (which allowed folks with good ratings to get right in). Fred would rather we use one of his portfolio companies’ (Return Path) solution.

I don’t know a lot about this issue (Fred’s post was the first time I’ve even heard of this). So, some questions for Fred:

1. How does Return Path make money with their program? They charge folks who send email to get certified right? Seems like Goodmail charges a fraction of a penny per email–how does that differ?

2. You’re saying AOL is selling folks inbox–that’s not exactly true is it? Isn’t more correct to say that for folks who has permission to email a person AOL is charging them to get certified to send the message? When you say selling your inbox that says to me that you’re letting folks spam folks who have NOT opted in. It’s not like you’re going to start getting spam, but rather if you signed up for (opted in) to offers from a company that company can pay to ensure you get them (basically taking the burdon off AOL to police all the spammers). If I’m misunderstanding this please explain.

3. Was Return Path competing for this business against Goodmail? Why did they lose?

I’m honestly interestd in your response, as I can have an impact on these issues within AOL.

Updates:

1. Fred responds in my comments. It seems that Return Path charges a monthly fee for being white listed/certified, Goodmail charges on a per email basis to be Whitelisted/certified. AOL has maintained a Whitelist themselves to to police email in the past–it’s not clear if that Whitelist will continue or if everyone will be told to just use Goodmail. The way I look at it, if I’m a good sender why should I have to pay (i.e. I’m a non-profit, a small publisher, or your bank) anyone including Return Path’s monthly fee or Goodmail’s per email fee.
   
2. Some feedback from another AOLer who thinks Fred is jumping the gun.
3. The CEO of Return Path makes his plea that the AOL White List remain in place–I think that’s a good idea.
   

Got to meet one of my favorite bloggers at Sundance last week…. the transcript:

Calacanis (from across the room): “You’re Perez Hilton!”
Perez (after a huge hug): “You’re rich, you’re hot… now tell me you’re gay!”
Calacanis: “Two out of three ain’t bad right?!?”

If I agreed to speak at your event or be at a event and it’s not below let me know… I don’t have an exec. assistant and some things have slipped…

Feb. 1st 2006: SIAA Information Industry Summit 2006.

• Top Ten Trends Panel with John Patrick (one of the smartest folks I’ve gotten to know in the Internet industry… very excited that he asked me to speak on this panel!).

In NYC Feb. 1st to 4th

Feb. 5th 2006: Speaking gig @ iMedia Summit in Florida.

Feb. 6th 2006 Back in LA
.
In NYC Feb. 24th-27th

April 4th: Wash, D.C.: Knicks at Wizards with Ted

May 9-12th: E3 Video Game Conference, Los Angeles.

May 17-28th: Cannes Film Festival, France. (maybe)

May 30th - June 1st: D Conference, SoCal.

(2005 schedule after the jump–dang, I took a lot of flights in 2005… my goal is to cut travel in half in 2006).